RESURGENCE OF TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN.

Afghanistan,
known as the empire killer is once again in the midst of a violent and deadly civil
war between the Afghan Government forces and resurgent Taliban militia, with
the later speedily capturing vast swathes of Afghan provinces, and by some
estimates might take over Kabul within a month. The Taliban surge comes right
on the heels of a hasty US withdrawal which began on the 1st of July, 2021,
with a deadline of 31st August, 2021, after 20 years of protracted “war on
terror” resulting in the loss of over 1,71,000 lives, trillions of dollars of
US debt and with the Taliban once again on the verge of gaining full control of
Afghanistan.
After two
decades since the US invasion of Afghanistan in their “war against terror”, a
fallout of the 9/11 attacks, when the Taliban was ousted from power, the Taliban
has reemerged as the likely contender to wrest power from the ruling
Afghanistan Government, being installed and maintained by the withdrawing occupying
powers. The resurgence and likely victory of the Taliban has upset the regional
geo-politics and put questions on regional stability. A stable Afghanistan
means stability for the entire region.
The Taliban,
or "students" in the Pashto language, emerged in the early 1990s in
northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.
The movement first appeared in religious seminaries/ Madrasas, paid and sponsored
by money from Saudi Arabia, which preaches a hardline form of Sunni Islam. The stated
aim of the Taliban was to restore peace and security and enforce their own
austere version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power.
REACTION OF REGIONAL POWERS
The
Communist Party of China (CCP) ever the pragmatic mover, did not waste any time
in inviting the Taliban leadership to Tianjin city, and on 28th July 2021, China’s
Foreign Minster Wang Yi met the Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar, the political chief of the Afghan Taliban, after which the Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a press briefing that "The Afghan Taliban is a pivotal military
and political force and is expected to play an important role in peaceful
reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan."
Sharing a
76-kilometre border with Afghanistan, China is naturally worried about any negative
impact the change in power will have on Xinjiang's security and stability,
which borders Afghanistan, and whether it will also be detrimental to the
development of China's “Belt and Road Initiative". Accordingly, Beijing is
fast maneuvering to protect its interests as the United States withdraws from
its longest war and because of Afghanistan's reputation as "the graveyard
of empires" for being notoriously difficult to conquer means Beijing isn't
likely to try and bring about regional stability through force.
It appears
that China is trying to work productively with whoever is in power, regardless
of ideology. Also, the Taliban has remained largely silent on the treatment of Uighur Muslims in China, probably viewing ties
with Beijing as a potential source of political legitimacy with economically
benefits.
The Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is contemplating running and
protecting Kabul airport following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops —
told CNN-Turk television that he may meet with the Taliban leadership.
In
anticipation of US withdrawal from the region Russia has already hosted Afghan
Peace conference on March 2021 in Moscow between the various warring factions.
Which leaves India...
THE FUTURE OF INDIAS INVESTMENTS.
Considering
India’s massive investments in reconstruction of Afghanistan, which is estimated
to be around 3 billion dollars, carried out under the protection of US umbrella,
now seems to be in jeopardy and India faces the dilemma whether to wait out the
conflict and abandon the Afghan Government or intervene and face the ire of the
Taliban who are likely to be in full control before the end of the year.
As per the
detailed INDIAN EXPRESS article linked below, India has invested
heavily in various projects — dams, roads, trade infrastructure over the last
twenty years and in the worst case scenario might end up in a diplomatic
wilderness if the opposing Afghan forces are not handled tactfully.
Recently, one of
the four attack helicopters donated by India to Afghanistan in 2019 was seized
by the Taliban after they took over the airport in Kunduz, in the northeast of the
country. Pictures and videos on Twitter show Taliban cadres standing next to a Mi-24
attack helicopter. India had donated four Mi-24V attack helicopters to the
Afghan Air Force as well as three Cheetah light utility helicopters, among
other equipment in 2019. The attack helicopters were given under a deal between
Afghanistan and Belarus, but financed by India. Besides this, India has also
provided training to aircrews.
The capture of the Indian helicopter comes as the Taliban and Afghan security forces are locked in a fierce battle for the country and the Afghan security forces are seen as lacking in air support, one of the reasons attributed to the Taliban’s speedy capture of vast territories. Afghan authorities are said to be looking for back up support from countries like India against the backdrop of concerns that the Taliban will escalate the level of violence once international troops complete their withdrawal by 31 August.
THE NEW TALIBAN LEADERSHIP.
The Afghan
Taliban under the leadership of Haibatullah Akhundzada seems more sophisticated
with regard to handling international powers evidenced by their diplomatic
overtures and visits to China and Russia and the establishment of a Diplomatic
Office in Doha. Softening of stance on minorities rights and women’s education as
per the interview given to the INDIA
TODAY NETWORK linked below, where the Taliban spokesperson Mohammad Suhail
Shaheen declared that the rights of the minorities will be protected and muslim
women will be allowed to study and work outside as long as they wear the Hijab/veil.
In the same interview, he also stressed that despite India’s massive efforts
towards Afghanistan’s reconstruction, any future talks with India will only be
on the “condition of impartiality”.
Considering
the strategic importance of Afghanistan for regional stability and security,
trade access to Central Asia and the amount already invested by India in building
roads, dams, hospitals etc... India will have to tread the waters very
carefully.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-indias-afghan-investment-7406795/
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