India's Options In Afghanistan

It is not a coincidence that the United States of America (US) is exiting Afghanistan t the same time that the focus of its foreign policy is shifting to East Asia. There is a growing consensus that the USA, instead of staying engaged in the lost wars should now urgently prepare itself for the unfolding geopolitical contest with China.
Defeating the Taliban and nation-building were part of the neoconservative ideology (promotion of democracy and interventionism in international affairs) of the US, which has evidently failed.
However, the US can abandon the Afghan government and exit the theatre, but India cannot. It has to protect its investments, prevent Afghanistan from becoming another safe haven for anti-India terrorist groups, and also check Pakistan deepening its influence in Kabul.
US’s Changed Priority
Ø Changing Priorities From Middle
East to Indo-Pacific:
1. The
USA may have retreated from Afghanistan as part of a grand strategy to take on
China in maritime Asia, in which it needs India’s involvement, and India might
find it tempting to join the ranks, especially after China’s aggression on the
Line of Actual Control.
2. America’s
strategic response to China’s rise is its Indo-Pacific strategy, which is aimed
at containing China’s rise and challenging its high-functioning single party
dictatorship.
3. The
US wants India to play a key role in the Quad bloc. But there is one problem.
India, unlike the other members, is the only continental Asian power in the
Quad, which shares a contested land border with China and is vulnerable to the
geopolitical changes in the Eurasian landmass.
Ø Ending Endless Wars:
After the costly and
prolonged military interventions in Afghanistan, the US has begun to see no
more interest in resolving the conflict there.
India’s Presence In Afghanistan
1)
Barring a brief pause in the
1990s, India has historically enjoyed good ties with Afghanistan, which go back
to the 1950 Treaty of Friendship.
2)
Indian interests and influence
suffered when the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, captured Kabul in 1996.
3)
But India was back in action as
soon as the Taliban were ousted from power after the US invasion in 2001.
4)
India has made huge investments
and commitments ever since, which run into over USD 3 billion, and cultivated
strong economic and defence ties with the Afghan government.
5)
Now, it is again staring at
uncertainty with the US pullback having effectively changed the balance of
power in Afghanistan and the Taliban making rapid territorial gains.
India’s Options In Afghanistan
Talking with the Taliban: Talking to Taliban would allow India to seek
security guarantees from the insurgents in return for continued development
assistance or other pledges as well as explore the possibility of the Taliban’s
autonomy from Pakistan.
At
this point, talking to the Taliban looks inevitable. But India should not
overlook the deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and the
Haqqani Network, a major faction within the Taliban.
The
USA overlooked it while fighting the Taliban along with Pakistan, and it paid a
heavy price for it.
Taking Afghan Government
in Confidence: There is no guarantee that
India’s quest for engagement with the Taliban would produce a desirable
outcome. So India should broad-base its options.
While
talking to the Taliban to protect its interests, India should also enhance aid
to Afghanistan’s legitimate government and security forces and work with other
regional powers for long-term stability in the country.
Support Afghan Military
Forces: The Afghan military has
some 200,000 battle-hardened soldiers, including the highly trained special
forces. The only force that is standing up to the Taliban is the Afghan
National Defense and Security Forces.
India
should urgently step up training Afghan forces and provide military hardware,
intelligence and logistical and financial support so that Afghan military can
continue to defend the cities.
India
should also coordinate with other regional powers to support the Afghan
government because if the government forces crumble before the Taliban, the
prospects for a political settlement would be narrowed.
Regional solution:
There is a convergence of interests between India and three key regional
players — China, Russia and Iran — in seeing a political settlement in
Afghanistan.
None
of these countries would like to see the Taliban taking over Afghan militarily,
which means there would be an isolated Sunni Islamist regime in a country with
fractured ethnic equations.
Thus,
there is a need for cooperation from like minded countries on this front.
Short Term and Long Term
Goal: India’s immediate goal should be the safety and
security of its personnel and investments.
The
long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis. None of
this can be achieved unless it works together with the regional powers.
Russian Support: Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban
in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct
engagement with the Taliban.
Significance of Iran:
Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan and has close resemblance of ethnic
minorities.
The
original objective of India’s Chabahar project in Iran was to create a direct
access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.
These
direct accesses is critical for India in all different scenarios — move
supplies to Afghanistan in larger quantities, retain its presence in the event
of a civil war or carry out covert operations if the Taliban take power by
force.
However,
the US's pressure on India is a roadblock in good relations between the two
countries.
Bonhomie With China:
India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political
settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.
WHY AFGHANISTAN IS IMPORTANT TO INDIA?
- Afghanistan serves India’s security and economic interests.
- Afghanistan is tied to India’s vision of being a regional leader and a great power, coupled with its competition with China over resources and its need to counter Pakistani influence.
- India’s ability to mentor a nascent democracy will go a long way to demonstrate to the world that India is indeed a major power, especially a responsible one.
- The pipeline project TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), which seeks to connect an energy-rich Central to South Asia, will only see the light of the day if stability is established in Afghanistan.
- India’s interest in Afghanistan relates to its need to reduce Pakistani influence in the region.
- New Delhi needs Kabul to get a better view of Islamabad and hence it is pertinent that it fosters positive relations.
- For access to the landlocked Central Asian countries that border Afghanistan.
· The
country is home to resource deposits worth one trillion dollars, according to
the US Geological Survey.
Conclusion
India,
as would be impacted by the consequences of American withdrawal, has to work
with Eurasian powers to protect its interests and stabilise Afghanistan. If
India remains active and patient too, many opportunities could open up in the
new Afghan phase.
SOURCE: RSTV
https://www.insightsonindia.com/2021/07/03/rstv-the-big-picture-india-and-afghan-peace-process/
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